Copy the Architecture. Not the Bureaucracy. | Eric Lin

An ambitious target is not the problem. The problem begins when Finance is expected to defend it as a forecast the business can actually deliver.

What happens when leadership decides the number before Finance has built the operating forecast? In this episode of FP&A Today, Sarah Schlott speaks with Alejandro Hellmund, Financial Analyst at Blue Eyed Lending, about the pressure to make predetermined targets work, drawing on his experience across financial planning, private equity and investment projects where expectations, available funding and operational reality do not always align.

Alejandro describes how early assumptions in major development projects can become fixed expectations long before the business has enough information to support them. The conversation explores the tension between making a model defensible and making a plan achievable, the consequences when projects miss their targets, and the importance of understanding the business behind the numbers. One particularly revealing example involves Alejandro maintaining a change log of forecast assumptions, a practice that made a former boss uncomfortable but gave Finance a record to support difficult conversations.

The larger lesson for FP&A is about preserving the distinction between ambition and evidence. Good finance professionals need commercial judgment as well as analytical discipline. That means challenging assumptions respectfully, documenting changes, understanding operational constraints and recognizing when the numbers no longer reflect reality.

Key Moments

• A target is not automatically a forecast. Numbers established early in a project can become expectations even when later operational evidence no longer supports them.

• Making the math work is not the same as making the business work. Changing classifications or presentation may create a defensible model without improving the underlying plan.

• Finance needs to understand the operating reality. Procurement timelines, project financing, capital requirements and business-model constraints can determine whether a financial target is achievable.

• Forecast misses can escalate beyond variance analysis. Investor expectations, funding arrangements and operational contingencies affect how businesses respond when results fall short.

• Challenge the assumptions, not just the output. Reviewing the P&L, cash flow and business model helps Finance identify where a target lacks support.

• Keep a record of what changed. A change log preserves the reasoning behind forecast adjustments and can support transparent conversations without turning disagreements into personal conflicts.

• Push back with evidence and tact. Finance has a responsibility to question unrealistic assumptions while helping leadership understand what would make the plan achievable.

• Know when the forecast has lost credibility. When sources are unreliable or the numbers no longer reflect reality, FP&A needs to revisit the assumptions rather than simply continue reporting against the original target.
  
  

Timestamps

03:12 - How predetermined targets become fixed expectations

05:11 - When making the numbers work becomes window dressing

14:53 - Testing top-down targets against operational assumptions

19:20 - What happens when a project misses its forecast

22:46 - The failed investment project and its consequences

25:21 - How to challenge unrealistic financial assumptions

31:17 - Why Alejandro kept a forecast change log

38:54 - When a stretch target stops reflecting reality

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Further Reading/Listening

Related FP&A Today episode:

The Real Job of FP&A: 40% Numbers, 60% Influence, with Gauri Tambe.

Alejandro and Sarah's discussion reinforces the importance of understanding the business behind the financial results and using that understanding to influence decisions.

A forecast can be useful for running a business and still lack the evidence needed to defend it.

What happens when accounting and FP&A report different revenue numbers for the same month, and the disagreement comes down to how a contract is interpreted? In this episode of FP&A Today, Sarah Schlott welcomes Norm Osumi to explore the judgment calls that sit between financial reporting, business performance and forward-looking forecasts.

Through a SaaS revenue-recognition example, Norm examines why bookings, billings and recognized revenue are not interchangeable, and how implementation fees and sales commissions complicate the picture. The conversation then turns to EBITDA and adjusted EBITDA, where excluding recurring expenses or making aggressive add-backs can change the story a business tells about its performance.

The central question is what happens when an FP&A forecast becomes evidence for an auditor, lender or investor. Norm discusses an auditor requesting five years of purchase orders to substantiate future revenue and explains why assumptions around growth, customer activity and the sales pipeline need to be reasonable and documented. For smaller finance teams, the lesson is not to build more elaborate models. It is to understand which numbers matter, what supports them and when to bring accounting into the conversation.

Key Moments

• Recognized revenue, bookings and billings serve different purposes. A sound FP&A forecast needs to account for the underlying revenue-recognition rules.

• SaaS implementation fees and subscriptions can produce different monthly revenue outcomes depending on the contract and performance obligations.

• Sales commissions raise both operational and accounting questions, especially when bookings, revenue and related costs fall into different periods.

• Adjusted EBITDA requires judgment. Recurring expenses cannot simply become one-time adjustments because excluding them creates a more attractive result.

• Forecasts can become part of an audit, valuation or financing process. Assumptions may need to be supported by customer activity, purchase orders and a credible growth pipeline.

• Smaller finance teams still benefit from documenting the handful of assumptions that materially drive their forecasts.

• Repeated misses against publicly communicated financial projections can damage management's credibility.

• FP&A and accounting need shared definitions, clear communication and a process for challenging assumptions before numbers reach external stakeholders.

Timestamps

05:42 - Why FP&A and accounting can recognize different revenue amounts

09:04 - Bookings versus billings versus recognized revenue

12:21 - How smaller companies should approach accounting for sales commissions

16:46 - EBITDA and the judgment behind adjustments

21:14 - GAAP, non-GAAP and adjusted EBITDA reporting

28:08 - When an FP&A forecast becomes audit evidence

33:33 - What auditors look for in forecast assumptions

36:45 - Documenting assumptions that support revenue projections

42:15 - Does forecast accuracy actually matter?

45:13 - Rapid fire with Norm Osumi

Earn CPE Credit

If you would like to earn CPE credit for listening to the show, visit:

https://earmarkcpe.com/fpa

Download the app, take a short quiz, and get your CPE certificate.

Further Reading/Listening

Related FP&A Today episode:

The $100M Revenue Mistake Everyone Missed, with Devon Coombs

https://www.devoncoombs.com/

The books were closed. The audits were supported. Then the CEO asked two simple questions: which products make the most money, and which ones don’t? Nobody could answer.

Purity Kibaki was the consultant hired to implement the system that was supposed to answer them.

Purity, CPA(K), leads group reporting, consolidation and finance systems at Hatch Africa. She previously founded Zirconn Black Group. She has been the accountant closing the books, the FP&A analyst who inherited them, and the consultant building the system underneath. She and Sarah explore what happens when finance systems are built around transactions and order-to-cash, but not around the questions FP&A eventually has to answer.

The result is familiar to many FP&A teams. Accounting closes successfully, but finance still can’t answer basic questions about product profitability, regional performance, campaigns, utilization or operational drivers without pulling data together by hand. Purity and Sarah discuss why “heroic Excel workarounds” can hide weaknesses in the underlying process. They also cover why FP&A data rarely gets the same scrutiny as accounting data, and why buying another planning tool doesn’t fix a broken source.

The conversation also gets practical. Purity explains which dimensions and tags need to be captured at the point of entry. She argues that system requirements should come from the people doing the work, not only senior leaders, and that finance professionals are better placed to become systems-aware than technologists are to become finance-aware. Her core message is simple: fix the source, and let everything downstream flow from it.

Key Moments:

A system can close the books correctly and still fail FP&A if it was never designed around forward-looking business questions.

"Heroic Excel workarounds" may keep reporting moving while hiding weak controls, manual dependencies and missing source data.

FP&A quantity and operational data often does not receive the same audit discipline as revenue, inventory or the general ledger.

Finance and accounting should help define system requirements before a business selects or configures its ERP or planning tools.

Product, region, segment, campaign and cost-driver tags need to be captured at entry if FP&A wants to analyze them later.

The best requirements often come from the person actually doing the work, because that is where undocumented process knowledge and reporting gaps live.

Finance professionals already understand the end result they need, making it easier for them to become systems-aware and use tools such as Power BI, automation and AI effectively.

Buying another tool is not the solution if the source data is still incomplete, manual or inconsistent.

Try This Monday: Trace One Unanswered Question

Pick one question your leadership asked last month that took too long to answer.

What data point would have answered it?

Where does that data get entered, and who owns that step?

Ask that person for what you need, and tell them why.

Timestamps:

(08:16) - How systems become "designed to forget finance" and push FP&A into Excel

(11:43) - Why heroic Excel workarounds can hide the real problem

(19:12) - Why FP&A and accounting need a seat at system selection

(24:20) - The missing data points that cripple FP&A analysis

(33:21) - Why requirements should come from the person doing the work

(39:45) - Why it is easier for finance to become systems-aware than developers to become finance-aware

(43:52) - "Buying a tool is not the solution" - fix the source first

(53:59) - Rapid fire: keep the annual budget only if you actually use it

(57:29) - Purity’s Monday move: pass the knowledge down

Earn CPE Credit:

If you would like to earn CPE credit for listening to the show, visit:

https://earmarkcpe.com/fpa

Download the app, take a short quiz, and get your CPE certificate.

Further Reading/Listening:

Purity Kibaki, CPA(K) - group reporting, consolidation and finance systems at Hatch Africa; founder of Zirconn Black Group (2021-2025).

Purity on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/puritykibaki/

The most expensive finance hire can be the one that looks senior enough to feel safe but solves the wrong problem.

Tom Hunter of Story Recruitment joins FP&A Today to explain why the first finance hire at a startup is often not a CFO. Story Recruitment focuses on first-CFO and first-finance-hire searches for Australian tech, fintech and deeptech startups, and Tom also hosts The CFO Track Podcast. His starting point is simple: before choosing a title, define the financial problem the business actually needs someone to solve.

That often means building the basics first. Tom describes financial controls, governance and reliable reporting as the foundation that FP&A and strategy have to sit on. He also shares an example of a founder who included GST in ARR, overstating revenue and contributing to a chain of due-diligence concerns that ultimately cost the company its lead investor. For growing businesses, the finance function itself becomes a signal of how organized and decision-ready the company really is.

The back half of the conversation looks at how the finance skill set is changing. As AI and better tooling reduce the moat around some technical work, communication, commercial judgment, project management and the ability to influence better decisions become more valuable. Tom argues that finance professionals should not see themselves as ticket takers or back-office support. The strongest finance people operate as commercial enablers who understand the problem, explain the numbers and help move the business forward.

Key Moments

• Build the foundation before the forecast. Controls, governance and reliable reporting need to be in place before FP&A can confidently layer forecasting and strategy on top.
• The first finance hire is usually not a CFO. A Controller, Head of Finance, VP Finance or fractional leader may be a better fit depending on the company’s stage, scale and complexity.
• Investors judge the finance function as a signal. Clean models, trustworthy reporting and an organized data room can influence how investors perceive the broader business.
• Write the job around the problem. Rank the financial challenges the business needs solved, then build the role and job description around those priorities rather than around a prestige title.
• Candidates need to prove outcomes. The strongest finance candidates can explain what problem they faced, how they approached it and what changed as a result.
• Communication is becoming more valuable. As AI and tooling take on more technical work, finance professionals who can communicate clearly, influence stakeholders and lead decisions become more differentiated.
• Stay proactive in your career. Continuous learning and volunteering for opportunities gives finance professionals more control than waiting for promotions, vacancies or recruiters.
• Finance should be the commercial enabler. The best CFOs and FP&A leaders help the business make better decisions instead of operating only as a reporting or support function.
  
  

Timestamps

(03:45) - Why controls and reporting come before FP&A and strategy
(09:01) - Why investors see the finance function as a signal of how organized the business is
(10:23) - The ARR reporting mistake that helped cost a founder the lead investor
(16:04) - Do you actually need a CFO - or even a full-time finance hire?
(20:02) - Build the finance role around the business problem it needs to solve
(26:26) - Why communication is becoming one of the most important finance skills
(37:17) - Staying relevant by learning, leveling up and being proactive
(52:12) - Why the best CFOs are commercial enablers, not ticket takers

Earn CPE Credit

If you would like to earn CPE credit for listening to the show, visit:

https://earmarkcpe.com/fpa

Download the app, take a short quiz, and get your CPE certificate.

Further Reading/Listening

About Tom Hunter

Tom Hunter, Story Recruitment - first-CFO and first-finance-hire search for Australian tech, fintech and deeptech startups. Host of The CFO Track Podcast.

You can find Tom at:
https://storyrecruitment.com.au

Tom on LinkedIn:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/tom-hunter-story/

Story Recruitment:
https://storyrecruitment.com.au

Anders Liu-Lindberg on finance funding its own transformation:
https://youtu.be/G892qsanpwQ?si=ZUupn7Pw4M6dgHTf